METHOD PREVIEW · NOT PERSISTENT
Forecast Passport
Earn a reputation by being measurably right.
ADPT's proposed Passport records probabilities before a market closes, resolves them against one frozen outcome source, and displays accuracy, calibration and sample size. Buying, holding, posting or trading cannot improve the score.
PROPOSED IDENTITY500neutral starting index
- Money
- None
- ADPT reward
- None
- Minimum rank sample
- 30 resolved
The stupid-simple version
Say what you believe. Freeze it. Score it.
- 1 · ForecastChoose a probability on a curated market.
- 2 · LockThe final revision freezes at the public cutoff.
- 3 · ResolveOne versioned authority records YES, NO or VOID.
- 4 · LearnYour Brier loss, calibration and sample size update.
LOCAL PRACTICE ONLY
Scoring lab
Add resolved practice forecasts. The page holds them only in memory. Refreshing or resetting erases them; no wallet, signature, request, cookie or browser storage is used.
Nothing has been submitted or stored.
What makes it hard to game
Evidence, not activity theatre.
One common slate
Markets, cutoffs, references and settlement authority freeze before outcomes are known.
Losses cannot disappear
Closing a market scores every eligible commitment atomically; selective winner-only scoring fails.
No cash or token rank
The Passport creates history, cosmetics and optional recognition—not ADPT, yield, claims or essential access.
Repairable evidence streak
One resolved forecast or verified contribution can qualify a week. Spending and trading cannot.
Current state: the scoring model has passed local adversarial tests, but this page is only a transparent practice surface. No production Passport database, wallet authentication or authoritative settlement service is claimed here.