Calibrated on real settled outcomes
Where Bitcoin actually settles
Not a price target. The full probability distribution — every price level, every horizon — estimated from — historical strike-market observations and scored against the settlement outcomes that followed.
| Strike | Settles above | Settles below | Density |
|---|
The market check Kalshi market pricing
The same strikes, two independent answers when both snapshots pass their freshness gates: historical settlement frequency and the captured market midpoint. Stale or expired rows are not shown as current. Divergence is information, not advice.
Signal convergence exchange data
The same indicators, read on three timeframes at once. They are descriptive technical readings, not an independently validated trading edge. Readings disappear when their source snapshot is stale.
What price touches vs where it settles daily · 9-year history
Counted over — years of daily bars — daily resolution, no intraday claims. Each cell is the chance price touches that level after the setup (what matters for a target or a stop) — settling there is always less likely, and the surface above answers that. Next to each figure, the edge over simply picking a random day: a big number with no edge is worth nothing, so we show both.
Model forecast experimental
The prediction engine's latest published numeric calls — shown next to what its own scored-record snapshot says calls like these have actually been worth. Stale calls are hidden. The stated number is the bot's confidence; the calibrated number maps it through resolved predictions. When calibration lands on a coin flip, the honest output is an abstention, and that is what you will see.
The dormancy wall node data
Every coin spent, sorted by how long it sat still first. The cool bands at the base are ordinary churn — coins moving within a day. When the hot bands at the top flare, Bitcoin that had not moved in years just did. That is the signal almost nothing else shows you block by block, and it comes from our own node.
The receipts settlement truth
A forecast is worth exactly what its calibration proves. This surface was fitted on history and scored on markets it never saw — against the Black-Scholes model the industry defaults to.
| Horizon | Fitted rows | Scored rows | Lognormal Brier | Surface Brier | Brier change | Status |
|---|
The chain underneath node data
Computed block by block from a sovereign Bitcoin full node — our own indexes, no third-party data vendor standing between us and the ledger. Choose what you want on screen.
Access
The historical chart is open. Current strike interactions are available only while their input snapshot passes the freshness gate. Future paid access remains disabled.
- Probability field
- One horizon at a time
- Every on-chain metric
- Calibration receipts
- Every horizon at once
- Exact strike probabilities
- Strike alerts
- Cone export
- Everything in Day
- Full surface API
- Historical replay
- Saved indicator sets