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Every tick produces a directional call, including when it has nothing to say \u2014 which is why so much of the record sits at minimum confidence."},"skill":{"brier":0.26492,"log_loss":0.72508,"brier_baseline_50":0.25,"log_loss_baseline_50":0.69315,"n":6786},"benchmarks":{"coin_flip":0.5,"fee_wall":0.57,"always_up":{"rate":0.58223,"lo":0.57045,"hi":0.59391,"n":6786,"hits":3951},"always_down":{"rate":0.41777,"lo":0.40609,"hi":0.42955,"n":6786,"hits":2835},"best_constant":{"name":"always UP","rate":0.58223,"lo":0.57045,"hi":0.59391,"n":6786,"hits":3951}},"by_timeframe":[{"rate":0.49543,"lo":0.46948,"hi":0.5214,"n":1421,"hits":704,"key":"15m"},{"rate":0.39976,"lo":0.38059,"hi":0.41924,"n":2464,"hits":985,"key":"1d"},{"rate":0.50337,"lo":0.48493,"hi":0.52179,"n":2823,"hits":1421,"key":"1h"},{"rate":0.32051,"lo":0.22748,"hi":0.43039,"n":78,"hits":25,"key":"1w"}],"by_confidence":[{"rate":0.47001,"lo":0.45032,"hi":0.4898,"n":2451,"hits":1152,"key":"0.50-0.55"},{"rate":0.47135,"lo":0.45203,"hi":0.49076,"n":2548,"hits":1201,"key":"0.55-0.60"},{"rate":0.43368,"lo":0.40526,"hi":0.46255,"n":1146,"hits":497,"key":"0.60-0.65"},{"rate":0.38315,"lo":0.33493,"hi":0.43379,"n":368,"hits":141,"key":"0.65-0.70"},{"rate":0.55263,"lo":0.48158,"hi":0.62159,"n":190,"hits":105,"key":"0.70-0.80"},{"rate":0.46988,"lo":0.36623,"hi":0.57619,"n":83,"hits":39,"key":"0.80+"}],"by_source":[{"rate":0.50048,"lo":0.48523,"hi":0.51573,"n":4126,"hits":2065,"key":"baseline"},{"rate":0.4044,"lo":0.38582,"hi":0.42326,"n":2636,"hits":1066,"key":"foresight"},{"rate":0.16667,"lo":0.06679,"hi":0.35853,"n":24,"hits":4,"key":"unrecorded"}],"by_market":[{"rate":0.46095,"lo":0.44423,"hi":0.47776,"n":3393,"hits":1564,"key":"BTC/USDT"},{"rate":0.46301,"lo":0.44629,"hi":0.47982,"n":3393,"hits":1571,"key":"ETH/USDT"}],"by_direction":[{"rate":0.39068,"lo":0.37514,"hi":0.40643,"n":3732,"hits":1458,"key":"DOWN"},{"rate":0.54912,"lo":0.53142,"hi":0.56669,"n":3054,"hits":1677,"key":"UP"}],"calibration":[{"rate":0.47001,"lo":0.45032,"hi":0.4898,"n":2451,"hits":1152,"bucket":"0.50-0.55","lo_edge":0.5,"hi_edge":0.55,"predicted":0.52253,"thin":false},{"rate":0.47135,"lo":0.45203,"hi":0.49076,"n":2548,"hits":1201,"bucket":"0.55-0.60","lo_edge":0.55,"hi_edge":0.6,"predicted":0.57101,"thin":false},{"rate":0.43368,"lo":0.40526,"hi":0.46255,"n":1146,"hits":497,"bucket":"0.60-0.65","lo_edge":0.6,"hi_edge":0.65,"predicted":0.61574,"thin":false},{"rate":0.38315,"lo":0.33493,"hi":0.43379,"n":368,"hits":141,"bucket":"0.65-0.70","lo_edge":0.65,"hi_edge":0.7,"predicted":0.6653,"thin":false},{"rate":0.47154,"lo":0.38553,"hi":0.55928,"n":123,"hits":58,"bucket":"0.70-0.75","lo_edge":0.7,"hi_edge":0.75,"predicted":0.72741,"thin":false},{"rate":0.70149,"lo":0.58345,"hi":0.79768,"n":67,"hits":47,"bucket":"0.75-0.80","lo_edge":0.75,"hi_edge":0.8,"predicted":0.77224,"thin":true},{"rate":0.40909,"lo":0.27688,"hi":0.5559,"n":44,"hits":18,"bucket":"0.80-0.85","lo_edge":0.8,"hi_edge":0.85,"predicted":0.82652,"thin":true},{"rate":0.53846,"lo":0.38569,"hi":0.68433,"n":39,"hits":21,"bucket":"0.85-1.00","lo_edge":0.85,"hi_edge":1.0,"predicted":0.85931,"thin":true}],"daily":[{"rate":0.22222,"lo":0.11716,"hi":0.38085,"n":36,"hits":8,"day":"2026-08-11"},{"rate":0.19792,"lo":0.13053,"hi":0.28855,"n":96,"hits":19,"day":"2026-08-12"},{"rate":0.44059,"lo":0.41026,"hi":0.47138,"n":1010,"hits":445,"day":"2026-08-13"},{"rate":0.5875,"lo":0.55607,"hi":0.61823,"n":960,"hits":564,"day":"2026-08-14"},{"rate":0.51667,"lo":0.48505,"hi":0.54815,"n":960,"hits":496,"day":"2026-08-15"},{"rate":0.36458,"lo":0.33473,"hi":0.39551,"n":960,"hits":350,"day":"2026-08-16"},{"rate":0.44842,"lo":0.41707,"hi":0.48019,"n":950,"hits":426,"day":"2026-08-17"},{"rate":0.39271,"lo":0.3623,"hi":0.42397,"n":960,"hits":377,"day":"2026-08-18"},{"rate":0.53634,"lo":0.49898,"hi":0.5733,"n":688,"hits":369,"day":"2026-08-19"},{"rate":0.48795,"lo":0.41305,"hi":0.5634,"n":166,"hits":81,"day":"2026-08-20"}],"sim_pnl":{"n":6786,"total":-863.667,"mean_per_prediction":-0.127272,"note":"Paper only. Simulated fills, no real capital, and it does not model slippage or funding."},"verdict":{"grade":"indistinguishable","statement":"The resolved record is indistinguishable from a coin flip. The day-clustered confidence interval contains 50%. The point estimate may sit well away from 50% - that is not the same as knowing it does.","beats_coin_flip":false,"below_coin_flip":false,"beats_best_constant":false,"clears_fee_wall":false,"inverted_timeframes":["1d"]},"caveats":["The record covers 9.2 days. That is a sample, not a track record.","1,716 predictions are still open and are excluded from every rate on this page. Long horizons resolve slowest, so the slower timeframes are judged mostly on their earliest calls.","6 predictions are past their horizon but unscored.","Too few resolved samples to judge: 1w.","The bot never abstains, so the record includes every low-conviction call.","Significantly worse than chance on 1d. Sustained sub-50% on a binary call is not noise; it is a signal pointing the wrong way.","Brier score 0.265 is worse than the 0.250 you get by saying \"50%\" every time. The stated confidences carry negative information.","Does not beat the dumbest possible benchmark: always UP scored 58.2% over the same window."]}